Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There's a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:
Don't bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You'll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks' aren't as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures "market" is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn't respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.
Don't try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it's really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you're getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you're assuming. Here's an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They've certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team--a 'dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example--you're getting "compensation" for assuming the "risks" of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.
In mathematical terms, we're simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the 'true odds' of the event occurring. Let's say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they're a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.
Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he'd essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It's never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.
Don't try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a 'big killing'. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn't make chasing big longshots a good value. If you're serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don't try to do it at a sportsbook.
On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you're getting on an underdog accurately reflects their "true odds" of winning.
Don't bet one-sided futures or propositions: Though many of these are not futures per se, a lot of sportsbooks offer silly propositions on nonsport events as a way to get publicity, or just to be funny. Its important to make a distinction between this type of silly bet and more realistic nonsport propositions which frequently present good wagering value. Im talking the really outlandish stuff here. Not too long ago, a sportsbook posted a line on Martians landing on earth and painting the White House red by the end of the year. The "YES" was +2500 or thereabouts, which is far from reflective of the "true odds" of this unlikely event. Even if you're the type that collects classic Art Bell shows on tape and believes in UFOs you wouldn't place the probability of this happening at more than a fraction of a percent. The book only offered the "YES" side of the proposition, meaning that you couldn't lay even a huge price on the more likely outcome. Another book had a futures offering for what would happen first with Ashton Kutcher, Demi Moore and Bruce Willis. All of the options were very unlikely--Ashton and Bruce fighting on PPV and my favorite--and the longest odds--Ashton, Bruce and Demi hopping in bed together and releasing a porno video documenting the event. You'd receive a sizable payback if any of the events ever transpired, but I'm not exactly sure how to compute the "true odds" on "when pigs fly.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.
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